In brief
- Checking turbulence forecasts is an attempt to control circumstances
- Turbulence forecasts aren’t 100% accurate and persistently checking them can actually worsen anxiety
- Instead of attempting (and failing) to control the situation through checking forecasts, anxious flyers should develop ways to restore calm and gain confidence
The trouble with turbulence forecasts
Checking turbulence forecasts (or weather forecasts, or jet stream forecasts) before a flight is an attempt to get control of a situation. By understanding what could occur, you feel a little more in control – but this control is a myth. In fact, repeatedly checking turbulence forecasts can increase anxiety.
As anyone who is afraid of flying will tell you, checking turbulence forecasts and weather has little impact on anxiety. It’s natural to look for certainty when you feel anxious. But when flying, that certainty doesn’t exist which means that searching for it can become another significant source of stress.
That’s because anxiety isn’t soothed by information but by feeling safe, and turbulence forecasts can’t provide that.
Ultimately, flying means accepting you’ll give up control for the journey – and developing ways to cope with that. Breathing, grounding and mindfulness techniques are all ways to restore calm and gain confidence.
Are turbulence forecasts accurate?
Turbulence forecasts use commercially available data in an attempt to predict the likelihood of turbulence on a flight. They sound scientific and are often built by aviation enthusiasts (like us), but they can be problematic for anxious flyers.
Turbulence forecasts – at least those that are accessible to the general public – aren’t accurate. We’ve written at length about why you shouldn’t trust turbulence forecasts, but we’ll go over the basics here:
Turbulence forecasts use detailed models of the earth split into blocks. Inside these blocks, models can forecast the likelihood of turbulence occurring at certain altitudes.
The forecasts measure the probability of turbulence occurring, but there’s a large margin for area.
These cells are big, too – at 13km square. That’s a lot of air. While there may be turbulence in one spot, 10km it may be completely clear in another spot. The models can’t forecast that.
In the real world, weather can be localised. You may be experiencing a rain shower but someone a few miles away may be enjoying sunshine. Turbulence can work this way.
One of the biggest issues with turbulence forecasts is that they assume pilots won’t do anything to avoid turbulence (which is, of course, wrong). Turbuli, for example, uses previous flight plans to calculate the forthcoming route and therefore expected turbulence, which is another problem.
Pilots and flight planners have access to more accurate forecasts and real time data from pilots (called PIREPs) that provide information on turbulence.
If bumpy air is forecast or expected, pilots can attempt to fly around it, over it, or under it. They won’t willingly expose passengers to turbulence unless they have to. They’ll find ways to minimise the turbulence, potentially slowing to turbulence penetration speed (a slight reduction in speed which can lower stress on the airframe).
Why don’t I feel more confident after checking the turbulence forecast?
As we know from our own experience on the ground, weather forecasts aren’t always accurate. There’s no real way to accurately predict turbulence at altitude, especially in the days – or even weeks – approaching your flight.
Your brain knows this, which is why anxiety doesn’t reduce once you’ve checked the turbulence forecast.
Instead, anticipatory anxiety can increase because each time you check the forecast, you’re exposing yourself to a trigger (in this case, turbulence).
Even if the flight is forecast to be smooth, your mind can spiral and begin to imagine what turbulence could be like on a flight. This can cause anxiety and in some cases, spike panic.
Fundamentally, you know that turbulence is hard to predict. Even if your flight is forecast as smooth, the anticipatory anxiety remains because you’re reminded that you’re entering a situation you can’t control – and you find that stressful.
What can I do instead?
Checking turbulence forecasts, jet streams and weather forecasts won’t help your anxiety. We recommend that you do everything you can to resist checking these before your flight. (Online tools like Blocksite can do this for you if you feel you need it.)
You may feel freer when you accept that you can’t control the flight, through a process known as acceptance. Instead of worrying about the potential of turbulence, you accept that turbulence could happen and work through that.
When you’re feeling anxiety spiking, whether that’s before a flight or during it, exercises like the 5-4-3-2-1 grounding technique can bring you back to the present and help to restore some calm.
You’ll find this exercise and several others on our Help Desk and in our Calm Flight Toolkit.
Ultimately, when you get on a plane you are giving up control. The reality is that your plane probably will encounter turbulence (thankfully, most of this will be light), but that planes and pilots can cope with it.
Please share this article with someone who might benefit from it.
FAQs
Checking the weather, turbulence or jet stream forecasts is a way of trying to feel in control. When you’re anxious, your mind looks for certainty. Checking forecasts can seem like a logical step. The problem is that these predictions can’t remove uncertainty, which means that instead of feeling safer, your brain stays on high alert.
You may find that turbulence forecasts are sometimes accurate. The models they use can provide a general idea of where turbulence might occur, but they’re not exact. The truth is that the atmosphere changes constantly, and pilots have access to more precise, real-time data. Even if forecasts show possible turbulence, your flight crew can (and often will) adjust course to find smoother air.
Instead of checking forecasts, try to focus on calming your body and grounding your thoughts before the flight. Breathing exercises, mindfulness, and grounding techniques like 5-4-3-2-1 can help you feel present and steady. You’re not trying to control things, but be calm and in the present moment.