World’s most turbulent flight routes – Simple explainer 

In brief

• Some routes are more turbulent than others, but these can’t be accurately predicted by turbulence forecast models
• Just because turbulence exists in an area, it doesn’t mean your plane will experience it
• Instead of worrying about the potential for turbulence, realise pilots and planners will do whatever they can to avoid turbulence if they can’t than your plane can handle it 

Are some flight routes more turbulent than others? Here’s what the data really says

Yes, some flight routes are more turbulent than others. Flights that pass over high mountains can experience turbulence, or routes that take you over the equator, for example. These are known phenomena, not conclusions generated from a turbulence forecasting app. 

Articles like this that references online turbulence forecasting data? If you did, then read our guide on why turbulence forecasts (and forecasting sites) aren’t accurate and should be treated as such.

The science just doesn’t support the statements that turbulence forecast providers make. Any newspaper, TV station, or radio show that reports this should reflect on that.

Let’s look at some of the more turbulent routes, what causes that turbulence and why it’s nothing to worry about.

Understanding possibility 

We’re going to show routes that reports suggest have the potential or possibility for high turbulence.

Note the words potential and possibility. Nowhere in the articles we’ve seen does it include these words (or synonyms), but they should – and here’s why.

Turbulence forecasters don’t have data from every flight in the area about the real conditions they experienced. Instead, they use data and plot the plane’s course on top of that. 

The problem is that they use a 13km resolution with no real understanding of altitude or flight plan. 

Of course, the plane could have experienced moderate turbulence, but it could also have avoided it altogether. 

Would the forecasters know this? No. And that’s a big issue with these predictions. 

Every flight has a possibility it could encounter turbulence. But behind the scenes, people, processes, tools and technologies are working as hard as they can to avoid it.

The world’s most turbulent routes

For the purposes of this blog, we can see from reports that UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Turbuli suggest that the top five most consistently turbulent routes (as of recent datasets) include:

• Santiago (Chile) to Santa Cruz (Bolivia) – Notorious for mountain wave turbulence over the Andes.
• Tokyo (Japan) to Osaka (Japan) – Short but often choppy, thanks to coastal winds and jet stream effects.
• New York (JFK) to London (Heathrow) – Busy and frequently buffeted by strong transatlantic jet streams.
• Lanzhou (China) to Chengdu (China) – Passes near high mountains where air currents collide.
• Shanghai to Hong Kong – Affected by tropical air masses and frequent convective storms.

What can you tell from this? 

Turbulence is shaped by geography, weather systems, and seasonal jet stream behaviour. 

It’s predictable and can be managed (although in many cases, not avoided entirely).

Why these routes get bumpy

The majority of these routes pass through mountain ranges or well-defined and understood phenomena (like the jetstream). If these can be predicted, they can be avoided as much as possible.

Here’s a basic primer on what causes turbulence:

• Jet streams: These are fast-moving air currents at cruising altitude. When aircraft cross them – particularly the strong Atlantic or Pacific jets – they experience clear air turbulence (CAT), which can’t be seen on radar.
• Mountains: Air flowing over high terrain creates waves in the atmosphere. When aircraft fly through these “mountain waves,” passengers can feel sharp jolts.
• Thunderstorms and convection: Warm, humid air rising quickly can create turbulent pockets. Airlines plan routes to avoid storms, but nearby activity can still cause mild bumps.
• Weather fronts: Where warm and cold air masses meet, turbulence is more likely – particularly during winter months.

Each of these factors is predictable to a point and pilots and flight planners do their best to avoid them. While this is never entirely possible, they do their best to ensure you’ll have the smoothest and safest flight you can.

Don’t read turbulence forecasts

Turbulence forecasts provide the illusion of control, but the reality is that you’re putting yourself through an anxiety-inducing experience for nothing. 

No statistical model can predict the exact conditions you’ll experience in flight.

You can’t predict the weather or control it – and that’s OK. Remember that your pilot, flight planner and the whole system of commercial aviation is working behind the scenes to keep you as safe and comfortable as possible.

Sit back and experience the flight as it is – the good and the bad.

Please share this article with anyone who might benefit from it.

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