In brief
- Reporting about turbulence doesn’t always accurately reflect the risk and impact of turbulence
- Turbulence is a safe and normal part of flying, and planes are built to safely fly through it
- Nervous flyers should avoid reading these stories and checking turbulence forecasts before flights
The truth about turbulence
The truth about turbulence is that it’s a natural part of flying. It’s weather being weather and planes are built to withstand the worst turbulence they’re ever going to face. As long as you’re strapped in, passengers are safe.
This is the truth, but it’s not going to make great copy.
Every few months, turbulence makes headlines. Sometimes it’s after an incident involving injuries to passengers, other times it’s ‘scientific research’ into the world’s most turbulent routes.
When media outlets seize on new “research” claiming turbulence is getting worse, or about to transform aviation, you’re not getting the full truth. Scratch the surface, and these articles overstate conclusions, underexplain uncertainty, and stoke fear without providing meaningful context.
Tools like Turbuli could, in time, be hugely useful. But there are too many unknowns in the data sets to make them accurate. When people are basing life decisions, like whether to board a plane based on bad science, it’s important to restore a little balance.
When science isn’t questioned and models, like the turbulence forecasts provided, challenged, it’s fearful flyers who are being misled. Here’s the truth about turbulence and why media science is getting it wrong.
What the media said
Recent reports feature Turbuli’s report on the most turbulent routes frame turbulence as a rising threat,
The takeaway is that turbulence is not only more frequent but more severe, with climate change as the accelerant.
Fearful flyers are left with increasing anxiety. If turbulence is riding across the world, my flights will be bumpier.
What the coverage doesn’t do is to adequately differentiate between types of turbulence, levels of severity, or what risk actually means in aviation terms.
Instead, the framing is established to increase passenger anxiety. It perpetuates the idea that flying is becoming more uncomfortable, unpredictable, and unsafe.
This isn’t new, but it’s damaging and dangerous. Turbulence is a major form of anxiety and in some people, can become a phobia.
We know that turbulence is a perennial media favourite precisely because it’s universal. Every flyer has felt it, and most dislike it. But by equating that discomfort with danger, they’re misrepresenting the science and the statistics.
What turbulence actually is
Turbulence is not a mystery. In aviation terms, it’s simply the irregular motion of the air. It’s normal, safe, and part of every flight.
Turbulence in planes can be caused by jet streams, mountains, storms, or rapid changes in temperature and pressure.
As you probably already know, pilots encounter turbulence routinely, and aircraft are designed to withstand it far beyond what passengers experience. While the wings might bend, they’ll never break, for example.
Turbulence is graded into levels. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) defines turbulence on a spectrum from light to severe:
- Light turbulence: Slight, irregular bumpiness — uncomfortable, but harmless.
Moderate turbulence: Noticeable changes in altitude or attitude, secured items move, drinks may spill, and armrests may be grabbed. - Severe turbulence: Large, abrupt changes in altitude, difficulty controlling the aircraft, unsecured passengers or crew at risk of injury.
Severe turbulence is extremely rare and most passengers – and pilots – may never experience it in their lifetimes.
While people often perceive planes to be falling hundreds of metres through the sky, the vast majority of turbulence falls into the light-to-moderate categories. Planes will fly through it and get to their destination. You might here some strange noises and it might be bumpy, but it’s always safe
So, turbulence is normal and planes are built to withstand it. But fear of flying isn’t rational, and that’s why these stories are so damaging because they can increase anxiety rather than reduce it.
Why science doesn’t support the headlines
There is evidence that clear-air turbulence (CAT), a form of turbulence that occurs at high altitude and is often invisible to radar, is becoming more frequent. This is likely to be happening as climate change affects jet streams across the world.
The takeaway for many fearful flyers is that flights are getting bumpier. But that’s supposition, not science.
Here are some of the problems with the statement that turbulence is getting worse:
- Model vs. lived data – The projections are based on climate models and simulations, not decades of consistent observational data.
- Correlation vs. causation – Even if turbulence incidents have risen in some records, attributing this directly and solely to climate change is simplistic. Improved reporting and better measurement technologies can also inflate numbers. There are also more planes in the sky, which means more turbulence, for example.
- Severity is overlooked – A doubling of “moderate” turbulence in one corridor is not equivalent to flights suddenly becoming unsafe.
- Selective framing – Picking out the “worst routes” makes for headlines, but ignores the global picture.
The articles about turbulence gloss over uncertainty and present modelled projections as present-day realities.
One of the biggest issues here is taking the turbulence forecasting models of Turbuli and others as exact science, rather than questioning them. At no point in this CNN article does anyone explain the limitations of the models being used by Turbuli.
That’s poor science communication, because it takes possibility and reframes it as inevitability.
Is turbulence increasing across the world? Yes. Will your flight be more turbulent as a result? We can’t say with any certainty.
How do turbulence forecasts work?
Turbulence forecasts are presented as being precise, accurate and trustworthy, but the reality they’re often hugely inaccurate. Here’s why:
- They look scientific, but they’re not cockpit reality. Turbulence forecasts rely on models and assumptions that don’t reflect what actually happens in flight. They do a disservice to the training of every pilot and the entire commercial flight sector.
- Forecasts are static. Flights aren’t. Updates are issued every 6–12 hours, but planes are constantly adjusting altitude, speed, and route to optimise for weather, safety, and efficiency. Turbulence forecasts are flawed and simplified.
- Turbulence is dynamic. Predictions are not. Just because turbulence is forecast at a certain altitude doesn’t mean your flight will hit it, or even come close. If it does, your pilot can adjust altitude and fly over and under it.
- Pilots don’t rely on forecasts alone. Real-time inputs from dispatch, air traffic control, and other pilots (via PIREPs) are far more accurate than any pre-flight forecast. Do pilots use commercial turbulence forecasts?
- Planes are smart. Aircraft can detect vertical acceleration changes instantly. Systems alert the crew before passengers feel a bump. Often, turbulence is avoided entirely. Does this show up in turbulence forecast maps? Of course not.
- Consumer turbulence apps are built on flawed assumptions. Tools like Turbuli use historical flight data and planned altitudes, not what pilots actually do in real time. Planes can, and do, move to avoid turbulence.
- A forecast isn’t a guarantee. Seeing “moderate turbulence” on an app doesn’t mean your plane will fly through it. Pilots have flexibility and will use it.
If you need one takeaway, it’s that turbulence tools and apps show the possibility of turbulence, not certainty.
For anxious flyers, that uncertainty can trigger unnecessary anxiety. Try not to check weather forecasts, turbulence apps or pay for a turbulence forecast, because it probably won’t help to reduce your anxiety.
Why poor science communication matters
The central problem here isn’t turbulence. It’s how science is reported. The pieces we’ve linked to, and thousands of others online, may be based on research, but the translation into headlines strips away uncertainty and inflates the significance and severity of turbulence.
They’re written to increase anxiety.
Poor science matters because it erodes trust. When media cry wolf, public scepticism grows about science, about climate change, and about aviation.
It also risks misleadng readers: Turbulence probably is increasing, but so are the tools that pilots, flightplanners, and the whole commercial aviation industry have to deal with it.
We can see that poorly reported science science stokes fear. The media knows that fear sells, but (in our view) that’s no reason to misrepresent science and mislead the public.
The duty of good science communication, and journalists, is to be accurate and proportionate. They should also question scientists and their models, not assume they’re accurate because a scientist says so.
Presenting a modelled future as present reality is misleading and goes against one of the fundamental principles of great journalism: truth.
Turbulence, truth, and trust
Turbulence can be dangerous. Severe turbulence can injure passengers, disrupt flights, and create discomfort. But it is not an existential safety risk some media portray.
Turbulence may be increasing, but the evidence is complex, limited, and far from the apocalyptic situation you’d expect when reading these articles.
Reporting science responsibly means acknowledging uncertainty, contextualising risk, and avoiding exaggeration. When you step on board a plane, you’re putting your faith in the most advanced system there is. Trust the science, engineers, and experts who built your plane and operate the routes, not a website using historic data and predictive modelling.
Please share this article with anyone you think might benefit from it.
FAQs
Turbulence is uncomfortable but it’s not unsafe. Aircraft are built to withstand turbulence levels in excess of those you’re likely to ever experience as a passenger. If you’re in a plane that’s experiencing turbulence always ensure your seatbelt is secured. You can learn about what happens during turbulence.
There is evidence that turbulence is increasing, specifically clear air turbulence (CAT). This is likely being caused by changes to weather systems and the jet stream which is caused by climate change. However, there are also many more flights than ever before and reporting has increased. While turbulence may be increasing, so is airline safety and the accuracy of commercial turbulence forecasting systems. There’s no need to be afraid.
As we’ve explored in detail, commercial turbulence forecasts aren’t accurate and shouldn’t be trusted. Instead of wasting time attempting to forecast the turbulence you may or may not experience, focus on learning about how planes fly and why turbulence isn’t a danger to your flight.