How accurate are turbulence forecasts?

In brief

• Turbulence forecasts aren’t 100% accurate and can cause unnecessary anxiety
• Anxious flyers should avoid checking turbulence forecasts before they fly
• Turbulence is a safe and normal part of flying
• Instead of checking turbulence forecasts, passengers should put their faith in the safety of air travel, the skills of pilots, and the support systems in place

Are turbulence forecasts accurate?

Commercial turbulence forecasting tools aren’t 100% accurate and can cause unnecessary anxiety in some people with a fear of flying. In this article, we’re going to explore the science behind turbulence forecasts and why anxious flyers should avoid them.

We will explain why you need to change your perspective, and learn to feel the bumps, not fear them.

(Before we start, we recognise that most turbulence forecasting tools are created by aviation enthusiasts like us. This isn’t a criticism of the individuals, but an attempt to provide some perspective on the strengths, weaknesses and practical use of turbulence forecasts for those with a fear of flying.)

What are turbulence forecasts?

Turbulence forecasting tools claim to predict when and where turbulence might happen. It’s true that they can inspire confidence in some, but beneath the colourful charts and forecast overlays lies a more complicated truth.

The atmosphere is a chaotic, fluid system, and predicting it accurately is challenging.

Weather is, by its nature, dynamic and no matter how sophisticated they are, turbulence forecasts can’t manage this complexity with complete accuracy.

Turbulence forecasting tools can provide a sense of control, which could actually increase anxiety.

For those with aviophobia, it’s important to understand what turbulence prediction tools are really doing, how the science works and where the cracks appear.

We also need consider whether these maps help passengers or heighten their fears. 

What is turbulence?

Turbulence can be unsettling for nervous flyers, but it’s natural and is caused by a range of factors, including the weather, airflow disruptions caused by things like mountains, and interactions with the jetstream.

You can learn more about the causes of turbulence and turbulence levels here.

The science of turbulence prediction

Turbulence forecasting tools use commonly available numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.

These are effectively giant simulations of the Earth’s atmosphere that process billions of data points from satellites, weather stations, aircraft, and more.

The most commonly used forecasting models include:

• NOAA’s Global Forecast System (GFS)
• ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System (IFS)
• NOAA’s GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidance) system, which estimates clear-air turbulence (CAT) intensity using vertical wind shear, jet streams, and convective activity

These models divide the atmosphere into grid cells to simplify their calculations. Each cell measures atmospheric properties like wind, temperature, and pressure, which are then used to calculate turbulence potential.

It’s incredibly sophisticated science, but these cells are big – and that’s a significant problem for turbulence forecasting. 

For example, GFS used by Turbuli, operates at around 13 km resolution, meaning anything smaller than that – like a localised mountain wave or microburst – can be missed by the models.

But turbulence often occurs at scales much smaller than the grid. So, scientists use parameterisation: mathematical approximations that estimate sub-grid effects based on larger patterns.

Instead of the precision accuracy they promise, turbulence forecasts are a prediction that turbulence could occur in a large geographic area.

Matching turbulence forecasts to real flight plans

Turbulence forecasting tools seem scientific, but they don’t directly map directly onto what happens in the cockpit.

Here’s how one pilot found his real-life experience of flight compared to a paid-for prediction.

Instead of being fixed, flight paths are dynamic, and pilots can and do alter altitude, speed, and heading in response to real-time conditions.

When they’re in the air, pilots receive turbulence updates mid-flight from dispatchers, ATC, and other pilots via PIREPs.

As well as real-time reports, aircraft themselves detect vertical acceleration changes and onboard systems alert crews before passengers feel a thing. The captain may switch on the seatbelt sign and seek to avoid any bumpy patches.

Turbuli, for example, uses historic data on flight plans and altitudes to calculate expected turbulence. This is a useful shorthand for its model, but it impacts accuracy because it’s making an assumption about the plotted course, altitude, and pilot response.

While Turbuli’s map might show “moderate turbulence” at FL330 over the Rockies or the Alps, your plane may descend to FL310 or climb to FL350 to avoid it altogether.

Why turbulence forecasts can fuel fear

Turbulence tools can offer a dangerous illusion. Instead of reducing anxiety, they can reinforce it.

By highlighting the possibility of turbulence, these tools can prime passengers to anticipate bumps, even when they may not occur.

Turbulence forecasts don’t create control or reduce anxiety, they accelerate it. In some cases, passengers have made choices not to fly based on the flawed data and assumptions in these apps and tools.

So, what’s the alternative?

When you fly, you’re placing your trust in the safest form of transport in the world. 

Pilots are trained to manage turbulence and will avoid it wherever necessary.

Dispatchers monitor evolving conditions and will warn pilots in advance of bumpy air, building avoidance into flight plans where possible.

Generations of aircraft engineers have built airframes that are stress-tested well beyond real-world forces. Turbulence may be uncomfortable, but it’s rarely dangerous.

Instead of obsessing over CAT indices and EDR charts that are created by and for weather forecasting professionals, learn how aircraft flex and bend, read pilot blogs and watch flight crew explainers.

The more you know about how aviation works, the less mysterious and scary  turbulence becomes.

Turbulence isn’t the problem, but fear is

Endlessly checking turbulence forecasts won’t change the flight and it won’t give you control.

Turbulence forecasting apps and tools reflect real advances in data modelling and meteorology, but they’re not tools for safety, they’re not flight plans, and most importantly of all, they have limitations.

Instead of checking turbulence forecasts, put your trust in the planes, pilots and the commercial aviation support system.

Please share this article with anyone who might benefit from it.

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