In brief
- Turbulence is a normal part of flight, and pretty much every flight will experience some bumps
- Turbulence is caused by a range of factors, including the jet stream, weather conditions on the route, and geographic features like mountains
- While turbulence may feel uncomfortable, it’s not unsafe and planes are built to handle it
- Instead of attempting to predict turbulence, it’s better to expect it to happen and develop ways to deal with it
Turbulence is normal, expected and nothing to be afraid of
Every flight will experience some light turbulence and chop. In most cases, turbulence will be light – in some cases, so light that you barely notice it. Other flights might experience parts where there may be moderate turbulence.
What’s normal depends on several factors, including the route you’re flying, the time of year you’re travelling and the type of plane you’re flying on.
What’s true for every flight is that turbulence is normal and expected. Pilots and flight planners will do what they can to minimise turbulence (as they did on a recent flight I had with EasyJet). Sometimes it’s not possible for planes to miss turbulence and in that case, they’ll fly through it completely safely.
In this article, we’ll look briefly at what causes turbulence, what happens when a plane hits turbulence. But first, let’s look at just how much turbulence is normal.
How much turbulence is normal: What stats and scientists say
Accurate stats on turbulence are hard to come by because light and moderate turbulence are treated as normal.
Research from the National Center for Atmospheric Research estimates that at any time, about 3% of the atmosphere contains light turbulence, 1% contains moderate turbulence, and a few tenths of a percent contains severe turbulence.
That doesn’t mean your flight has a 3% change of turbulence. Turbulence (as we will explore below) is caused by a range of factors.
What it does mean is that moderate turbulence is rare.
How rare?
Again, facts are hard to get but an analysis of PIREPs show that pilots register around 65,000 moderate PIREPS a year, and around 5,500 severe-or-greater PIREPs.
In the USA, there are over 16 million flights per year, says the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). That means moderate or greater turbulence affects just one in every 250 flights.
Is turbulence becoming more frequent?
There are lots of stories about turbulence becoming more frequent. Studies like this one from the University of Reading record dramatic increases in clear air turbulence in transatlantic flights.
The evidence suggests that climate change is making turbulence stronger and more widespread.
The statistics here could be concerning to anxious flyers, but there are some caveats. The way we record turbulence has changed in the years, so it’s important to consider this.
There has also been a huge increase in flights in the last four decades, which may have influenced the results.
Even if turbulence is increasing, we’re seeing an increase in our ability to forecast – and therefore – avoid it.
Professor Paul Williams, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading and the author of the study estimates we can forecast up to 75% of clear air turbulence. If we can see if, pilots can avoid it (if possible).
So, yes, clear air turbulence may be increasing, but we’re getting better each year at being able to forecast it.
What causes turbulence?
Turbulence is caused by several different atmospheric processes. To understand why it happens, it’s helpful to look at the four main causes:
- Clear-air turbulence (CAT): This occurs at high cruising altitudes, often near jet streams. Because CAT creates no moisture or clouds, it’s invisible to radar. Pilots manage CAT by using real-time Pilot Reports (PIREPs) and advanced forecasting platforms like Turbulence Aware from IATA. When CAT is expected or experienced, flight planners and pilots may adjust altitude to find smoother air.
- Mechanical turbulence: This happens closer to the ground when wind is disrupted by physical obstacles like mountains, ridges, or large buildings. This forces air to rise and twist, creating bumpy conditions. This can happen over mountain ranges like the Alps, or in airspace around cities like Denver.
- Thermal (convective) turbulence: Caused by warm air rising from the Earth’s surface. It’s most often experienced on hot days or near thunderstorms. Pilots receive convective forecasts to route around these areas, with instructions to fly at least 20 miles away from an active storm.
- Wake turbulence: This is the spiraling air created by the wingtips of a preceding aircraft. Air Traffic Control enforces strict spacing between flights to ensure passengers never encounter this as it can be
You can learn more about what causes turbulence in our detailed guide.
Can turbulence be predicted?
Pilots and flight planners have access to high-quality weather and turbulence forecasting tools that they can use to identify areas of turbulence and avoid them, where possible.
As you can see from my experiences of flying during an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Europe, pilots will plot a course to avoid areas where turbulence is possible.
Turbulence forecasting tools like Turbli, Zeroturb, Turbulence Forecast, Turbcast (and others we’ve probably missed) use commercially available data from the NOAA and the ECWMF to predict areas of turbulence.
While these may be able to identify broad areas where turbulence could occur, they’re not as detailed and accurate as those used by air travel professionals.
The lesson is that while turbulence can be forecasted with a degree of accuracy, passengers like us don’t get to see this data.
Instead of trying to predict turbulence (and therefore gain some degree of control over the flight) it’s better to accept turbulence could happen – and know what’s happening to the plane and the passenger inside if and when it does occur.
What should I do if my plane hits turbulence?
It’s vital that you keep your seatbelt loosely fastened whenever you’re flying.
Turbulence-related injuries are rare, but they do happen. The majority of turbulence related injuries are caused because passengers and crew members aren’t safely strapped in.
There are several methods for dealing with turbulence. You may want to seek distraction with a book, music, film or TV show. (Noise cancelling headphones are essential!)
Some people use breathing and grounding exercises to bring themselves to the present. This can anchor you to the present, reducing the potential for getting locked into a panic spiral.
Lifting your foot on the floor and riding the turbulence – rather than tensing up and resisting the movement – can help.
We’re all individuals, and what might work for you may not work for other people. Our Calm Flight Toolkit contains practical, evidence based tips to help you at every stage of your flight – including during turbulence.
You can also check out breathing, mindfulness and grounding guides on the Help Desk.
The key takeaway is that while turbulence may be uncomfortable, it’s not unsafe. Stay seated, keep your seatbelt fastened and understand that turbulence is temporary.
Please share this article with anyone who might benefit from it.
Frequently Asked Questions
No. Turbulence is a normal, expected part of flight. Commercial aircraft are engineered with massive safety margins and are built to withstand forces far beyond anything you are likely to experience in the air.
Our brains interpret the sensations of motion as a threat, which can trigger anxiety. While the plane might feel like it’s shaking or dropping, these movements are often only minor deviations in altitude.
While some studies suggest clear-air turbulence may be increasing due to climate change, this does not make flying unsafe. Aviation weather forecasting and avoidance technology are also improving every year.
The most important step is to keep your seatbelt fastened while seated. If you feel anxious, use grounding or breathing exercises – such as box breathing – to help manage your stress. Remember that the movement is temporary and your flight crew is actively managing the situation
