In brief
- Weather is dynamic, and it’s almost impossible to accurately predict or forecast the turbulence you may experience on your flight
- Turbulence forecasting tools available to passengers aren’t accurate
- Anxious passengers often try to predict flight conditions in an attempt to exert control, but this can backfire in several ways
How can I tell if my flight will be turbulent?
Turbulence for your flight is almost impossible to predict with any great accuracy. No person (including the pilot), system, app or tool can accurately predict the conditions you will experience in the air.
Turbulence is caused by weather which is dynamic and hard to predict. Turbulence forecasts may predict calm skies, but you may experience turbulence. Alternatively, turbulence forecasts may suggest rough skies, and your flight is smooth.
If turbulence is an anxiety trigger, it’s understandable that you’d try to understand what you’ll experience in the air. But doing so is impossible.
Learning to live with the uncertainty (and accepting turbulence may be present) is the only way to deal with a fear of flying.
Is turbulence dangerous?
Turbulence is an unpleasant experience for passengers, crew, and pilots, but it isn’t dangerous if you stay lightly strapped in and follow the instructions of the crew.
For us passengers at the back of the plane, turbulence can cause anxiety. The bumps and movement of the plane can be uncomfortable, but they’re never likely to be unsafe.
In moderate (or stronger) turbulence, cabin crew need to be strapped in and can’t do their jobs.
Pilots aren’t worried about turbulence, but lumps and bumps can cause their coffee to spill and demand attention.
Why do I want to know if my flight will be turbulent?
If turbulence is an anxiety trigger, knowing what to expect can help you prepare. It’s also a way of exerting some control on the situation, as the turbulence, if it occurs, won’t take you by surprise.
The anxious mind thinks that by knowing what turbulence is likely, you can prepare. Unfortunately, it’s a false sense of confidence.
Forecasting apps are notoriously unreliable and continually checking such forecasts can increase anxiety, rather than reduce it.
For pilots and crew, turbulence is an operational issue and a comfort concern, not a safety problem. Knowing this frees them from the need to know (or attempt to know) what turbulence is likely to occur.
Anxious passengers seek comfort in knowledge of flight conditions and confidence in control, but it’s based on an illusion.
The way to reduce turbulence fear is to approach every flight like cabin crew do: accepting turbulence can happen, and understanding it’s not a danger.
Should I use turbulence forecasting tools?
Turbulence forecasting tools are unreliable for a whole host of reasons. Even forecasts like those provided by the ECMWF, which are used by airlines, are inaccurate.
Forecasts provide an idea of the potential for turbulence to occur, not the reality of an experience.
A model may predict moderate turbulence for an entire route, but passengers may experience nothing more than a few bumps, for example. In other cases, a prediction of light turbulence may turn into moderate bumps during the flight.
If you’re considering looking at these tools, ask yourself:
Is it better to spend weeks worried about what might happen, or the duration of your flight dealing with what actually is happening?
Flying is an experience that demands we give up control. But it’s to a group of people who have received years – in some cases, decades – of training and achieved advanced certifications to keep us safe.
Do pilots know when turbulence is coming?
Yes, commercial pilots will have a better understanding of turbulence potential than passengers. But that doesn’t mean they can predict, to the minute, when turbulence will occur.
Airline pilots have access to more advanced weather and turbulence forecasting systems than passengers. They’ll be advised of potential turbulence along the route and can also receive real-time updates from the ground and from other pilots.
Even so, turbulence can take pilots by surprise. But it doesn’t shock them. Instead, it’s another normal part of commercial flight.
Why acceptance is the best way to reduce anxiety
Every flight will experience turbulence, from a few light bumps on takeoff to moderate or more. This turbulence is never a problem for the plane or a concern for the pilot or crew.
Accepting that your plane will experience turbulence, and flying anyway, is what pilots, crew, and thousands of other passengers do every day.
It’s not easy entering a situation that your brain tells you is dangerous, so you’ll need to find ways to deal with that. You can find lots of resources on our Help Desk and in our Calm Flight Toolkit that can help.
If you want a more structured approach, you can check out our guide to the best fear of flying books, read some expert insights, and learn about the professional help that’s available.
Whatever you choose to do, avoid turbulence forecasting apps and tools. Focus on what’s happening now, not what could happen in the future.
Please share this article with anyone who might benefit from it.
FAQs
No. Turbulence is caused by dynamic weather patterns that are notoriously difficult to forecast. Neither passengers, apps, nor pilots can accurately predict exactly what conditions you will experience in the air.
While turbulence can sometimes be an uncomfortable experience for passengers and crew, it is not considered dangerous for the aircraft. It is important to stay lightly strapped in and follow the instructions given by the cabin crew.
No. These tools are often inaccurate and can increase your anxiety by encouraging you to try to exert control over something that is fundamentally unpredictable. Focusing on the present moment is a more effective way to manage fear of flying.
Pilots are trained professionals who view turbulence as a normal part of commercial flying rather than a safety threat. While they have access to advanced forecasting systems to assist with route planning, they accept that unexpected bumps can occur and manage them as a standard operational matter.
