In brief
- Turbulence isn’t “worse” in one season overall, but the type of turbulence differs between winter and summer
- Summer turbulence is often linked to heat-driven convection and thunderstorms
- Winter turbulence is more commonly associated with strong jet streams and large temperature contrasts
- Modern aircraft are designed to handle all seasonal turbulence safely, and pilots adjust routes and altitudes accordingly
TLDR: Turbulence is hard to predict in summer and winter!
Whether it’s the summer or the winter, the turbulence you might experience depends on the atmospheric processes at work that day. Summer and winter create different atmospheric conditions, and that means different kinds of turbulence.
Understanding these differences can help replace the vague fear of “bad weather season” with something more realistic , and easier to manage.
In the end, it’s highly likely your flight will experience at least some turbulence. But, while turbulence might feel uncomfortable, it’s not unsafe.
Why summer flights can feel bumpy
In summer, the ground heats up quickly under strong sunlight. The warm air rises in columns, and cooler air sinks to replace it. This vertical mixing of warm and cool air is called convection.
You’ve probably seen it in action as towering cumulus clouds that build into afternoon thunderstorms. Inside and around these clouds, the rising and sinking air can create moderate and sometimes even stronger turbulence.
Even on clear days, strong surface heating can produce “thermals”. These are rising bubbles of warm air that can cause light to moderate bumps.
This type of turbulence is much more common in the afternoon and over land. It’s also much more likely to affect your journey during takeoff and landing, not at altitude.
This is one explanation why summer flights can often feel bumpier earlier in the climb or later in the descent.
Thunderstorm turbulence is visible on radar and can be avoided. As well as detailed forecasts, experienced pilots can spot dangerous looking clouds and avoid them.
So, while summer turbulence can be strong and noticeable, it’s also predictable and avoidable.
Why winter flights can feel turbulent
Winter turbulence tends to come from the jet stream. These bands of powerful winds criss cross at high altitudes and can cause disruptions in the air that can lead to turbulence.
In colder months, the temperature contrast between polar and mid-latitude air becomes more extreme.
Inside the jet stream can be calm, but near the edges the wind speed and direction can change abruptly. This can create what’s called clear-air turbulence (CAT).
As the name suggests, pilots and flight planners can’t see CAT on the radar. It can sometimes occur without warning which can take pilots and passengers by surprise. (As we’ve written about before, the reports of these unexpected turbulence incidents can sometimes be exaggerated!)
Thankfully, pilots and flight planners are able to see turbulence forecasts that are much more accurate than those available to passengers, like Turbli. These are all considered while flight plans are being made.
While in the air, pilots also receive reports from aircraft ahead of them, called PIREPs. If turbulence is expected, pilots can sometimes request altitude changes to find the smoothest air.
Seasonal turbulence is normal and expected
Winter turbulence isn’t better or worse than summer turbulence. They’re both caused by natural atmospheric dynamics. It’s the weather doing what it always does.
Turbulence can be hard to predict which can scare some passengers. The truth is that planes are built to withstand turbulence at levels beyond that you’re ever likely to experience while flying.
Instead of worrying about things you can’t control (like the weather), work on how this loss of control impacts you. Grounding exercises, breathing techniques and mindfulness can all help. Acceptance, too, is a powerful approach.
Flying soon? Download the free Calm Flight Toolkit.
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Frequently asked questions
Is clear-air turbulence more dangerous than storm turbulence?
No. It can be less predictable visually, but aircraft are designed to handle it. Pilots rely on forecasts and pilot reports to avoid the strongest areas.
Are transatlantic flights bumpier in winter?
They can encounter stronger jet streams in winter, which may mean more frequent light to moderate turbulence. But many winter crossings are smooth.
Is there a time of day with less turbulence?
Early morning flights are often smoother in summer because the ground hasn’t heated up yet. In winter, time of day is usually less influential than large-scale weather patterns.
Should I avoid flying in winter if I’m anxious about turbulence?
Avoidance tends to reinforce fear. Gradual exposure with accurate information and coping strategies is more effective long term. You can learn more in our Expert Insights series.
