In brief
- Instead of increasing confidence turbulence forecasting tools like Turbli can increase anticipatory anxiety
- Turbulence forecasts aren’t accurate and can’t accurately predict the conditions you’ll experience on your flight
- Accepting turbulence is a part of flying is the first step in increasing confidence and restoring calm
Why Turbli can increase anxiety – and how to deal with it
You’ve checked your flight on Turbli. Now what? Turbulence forecasts claim to reduce stress, but too many nervous flyers find they raise anxiety. The urge to constantly check can dominate pre-flight hours.
Even worse, many people find the predicted turbulence never actually arrives, and if it does, many people find bumps much easier to deal with than they anticipated.
Anxious flyers have access to a huge range of turbulence forecasting tools, including Turbli, Zeroturb, Turbulence Forecast that provide accurate looking forecasts. You may have used them yourself – I know I have.
But ask yourself: Does checking Turbli reduce anxiety, or increase it?
At Fly Above Fear we’re not negative about turbulence forecasts, but we use our expertise to explore the science and look at how these forecasts are created. They have huge potential, but are limited by our ability to predict turbulence.
These tools use anxiety to encourage and incentivise you to continue checking. It’s part of a dopamine loop and can be hugely damaging if you’re prone to anxiety. Here’s how to cope with turbulence forecast anxiety.
How does Turbli work?
Turbli uses NOAA weather data to provide an estimate of turbulence potential.
Turbli creates its forecast by taking the previous routing information and altitude to provide an estimate of the turbulence at the given flight time and at a specified altitude.
The forecasting data Turbli uses can’t cover every altitude, and instead, offer forecasts at flight levels, including 30,000, 34,000 and 39,000 feet.
These tools split the world into 13km blocks. Turbulence may be expected somewhere within this block, but – as we’ll explore below – that doesn’t mean your plane will experience it.
What the forecast is actually telling you
Turbli turbulence forecasts provide a prediction for turbulence that could occur in a 13km block.
That’s it.
Turbli’s polished mapping and routing look fantastic, but ultimately all turbulence forecasts represent a potential for what could happen, not what will happen.
The atmosphere is dynamic and ever changing and turbulence forecasting is recognised as being hugely challenging. The data sources aren’t particularly accurate and the 13km resolution provides a massive margin for ever.
If we were being kind, Turbli can provide a really basic prediction for the potential of turbulence over a broad area that your plane may or may not experience.
What it can’t tell you
Turbli can’t tell you what altitude and course your plane will fly.
It can’t predict how pilots and flight planners will respond to any predicted turbulence (and remember, they have access to much more accurate forecasting data than the Turbli team does).
It can’t tell you when turbulence will occur nor can it predict the severity of it.
A prediction of a bumpy flight doesn’t mean you’ll experience one. On the other hand, a flight that’s forecast to have no turbulence can be continually bumpy.
Why? Because the atmosphere is dynamic and no model – particularly one available commercially to the public – can predict turbulence with the accuracy some sites claim.
Turbulence forecasting assumptions matter. Here’s why:
In generating turbulence forecasts, Turbli (and all the others) make significant assumptions. And these really do matter.
Here’s why:
Turbli assumes your plane will fly the same course and at the same altitude it has done in the past. This is false. Pilots can – and will – adjust flight altitude to cope with any expected turbulence.
Turbli assumes that pilot and flight planners won’t plan for turbulence and develop a plan to avoid it, where possible. This is false. Before every flight, experts in charge of your flight will do everything they can to find a course that minimises disruptions – including turbulence.
Turbulence forecasts use impressive looking visual interfaces to provide a realistic looking map of where turbulence will affect your flight. This is false. Turbulence forecasting data works on a 13km grid. Turbulence may be present within this grid – but your plane may fly around it, above it, or under it. It may never appear at all.
When you look at a forecast, it may seem scientific and it is, to some degree. But it’s also very crude and liable to change.
Why the forecast can change
Turbulence forecasts change because the weather changes! (It’s also true that the models become more accurate the closer it comes to your flight.)
When it comes to turbulence forecasts, lots of people find that predicted moderate or higher turbulence can disappear.
Forecasting turbulence is challenging, and the further in the future you’re looking the less accurate they are. As we’ve explained above, forecasts can paint a broad picture of expected conditions that can become clearer as your flight approaches.
Turbli’s forecasting models update every six hours, and many nervous travellers report that they regularly check to see what’s happening.
Again, as we’ve explained previously, turbulence forecasts are unreliable. That’s as true a few days out as it is a few hours before your flight.
Why a “moderate” forecast doesn’t mean the plane is in danger
Moderate (or greater) turbulence is one of the biggest fears for anxious flyers and Turbli seems to predict it a lot.
Light turbulence is minor movement to the plane. It may feel like small bumps and it’s more of an inconvenience than anything else.
Moderate and severe turbulence are a magnitude stronger and the abrupt movements associated with them are what most anxious flyers think about when they consider turbulence.
Moderate turbulence is relatively rare, so it’s unlikely you’ll experience it during your flight. If you do, it’s likely to happen for a short period. As long as you remain strapped in, you’ll be fine. The plane can travel straight through it with no problems.
If you want more information, read our guide to turbulence levels.
Does Turbli over-predict turbulence?
We don’t have access to Turbli’s data, but anecdotal evidence suggests that Turbli does over-estimate the real world turbulence passengers experience on the plane.
Firstly, a forecast shows the potential for turbulence – not the reality of it occurring. The predicted turbulence may never have existed, or it may exist at a different altitude. (Of course, we’ll never know!)
More importantly, Turbli and other turbulence forecasting apps assume the pilot and light planners will push you through any turbulence when it’s clear that this isn’t the case.
Consider it this way. Turbli may accurately predict turbulence at 34,000 feet and reflect this in its prediction. The flight planner may spot this and plot a course at 37,000 feet that completely misses the turbulence.
Was Turbli wrong?
Yes. What Turbli does is present a potential for turbulence in a pseudo-scientific way that can trick some people into trusting its predictions – and that’s a real problem.
Why forecasts can increase anxiety
Some people think checking a turbulence forecast gives them a sense of control, but it’s false.
Firstly, you know that the forecast is just that. Even if the conditions are predicted to be smooth, you’re still aware that the flight could be bumpy. On the flip side, if it’s predicted to be bumpy, you’ll spend the run up to the flight and the flight itself in a state of panic, waiting for turbulence that may never occur.
Secondly, checking a forecast keeps your nervous system on high alert long before you ever step onto the aircraft.
Instead of reassuring you, every update creates a fresh cycle of anticipation and worry.
The truth is that you’re looking for certainty that simply doesn’t exist in the atmosphere. Turbli can’t predict turbulence at the level of accuracy that you want it to.
Even worse, each additional check of Turbli can cause your anxiety to spike. This can condition your brain to treat the flight itself as an imminent threat.
Every time you check Turbli (or another turbulence forecast) you tell your brain that flying is something to be anxious about.
How to break free from the checking-in anxiety spiral?
Stop checking Turbli is the simple advice, but we know that doesn’t always work.
If you’re reading this article, you know that flying causes anxiety. It’s in your power how you respond to this, and you’re more powerful than you think.
The first thing to do is to identify ways that you can take control of your anxiety and find ways to control it.
Here are some places to start:
- Breathing exercises for anxiety
- Grounding techniques for fear of flying
- Mindfulness tools to stay in control
The purpose of these exercises is to restore some control over anxiety and to break you free from the spiral.
When you find anxiety spiking (and the temptation to check Turbli) remember that it won’t help you. Instead of clicking the button, think about what you’re searching for and whether you’ll find it there.
The truth is that you can’t predict turbulence. You need to be able to accept that turbulence could be present during your flight and come to terms with this fact, because it is a fact. You’re dealing with what is happening, not an awful scenario your brain may create for you.
What to do if you’re flying today:
We’ve explained what
If you’ve seen a turbulence forecast and your anxiety has suddenly gone through the roof, you need a plan for the next few hours.
Here are 4 things to do to restore some calm:
- Commit to not checking Turbli (or any other turbulence or weather forecasting tool) again before your flight
- Focus on your breathing with the box-breathing technique and 5-4-3-2-1 exercise to bring you back to the present, not fall into an anxiety spiral
- Read our in-depth guide on what turbulence is, why it’s not dangerous, and how pilots and flight planners work to avoid it.
- Check “Can I overcome my fear of turbulence? Q&A with therapist Nathan Feiles” to learn about how you can tame turbulence anxiety
- Download the Calm Flight Toolkit, a free resource packed full of hints, tips and resources to help you fly without fear
Understand turbulence, ignore Turbli
Turbulence is nothing more than the weather being the weather. By its nature, it’s unpredictable and can be uncomfortable but it’s not unsafe.
Turbli and other turbulence forecasting tools profit from your anxiety. They know that the information they provide doesn’t cure anxiety and provide control, it delivers the opposite. Anxiety increases every time we check, so don’t.
If you’re flying soon and frightened by what you’ve seen, start here with our guide to free fear of flying resources. This is a clear and structured resource with all the guides you’ll need to understand what fear of flying is, the causes and solutions.
Please share this with anyone who might benefit from it.
FAQs
Turbli uses public weather data from NOAA to generate predictions based on broad 13km atmospheric blocks. While it can show the general potential for atmospheric instability over a wide area, it cannot predict turbulence with high accuracy for your specific flight. Dynamic weather conditions, changing altitudes, and real-time flight path adjustments made by pilots mean that a forecast of turbulence rarely reflects the exact experience on board.
Turbulence forecasts change frequently because atmospheric weather models constantly update as new data becomes available. As your departure time approaches, meteorological conditions evolve, wind patterns shift, and temperature gradients alter. What appeared as a turbulent zone several hours or days prior can easily dissipate or shift location entirely before your plane takes off.
Yes, pilots have access to advanced flight-planning software, real-time pilot reports (PIREPs), and direct communication with air traffic control. If turbulence is reported or predicted along a route, flight crews routinely request altitude changes or slight path deviations to bypass bumpy air whenever it is safe and practical to do so.
Repeatedly checking forecast apps fuels an anxiety loop by feeding your brain continuous uncertainty. To break this habit, set a firm boundary to delete or close turbulence apps prior to travel day. Replace the checking behaviour with structured coping strategies, such as box breathing, listening to reassuring audio guides, or engaging in grounding exercises that focus your mind on your immediate surroundings rather than future possibilities.
